Moody’s sees Argentina inflation at 30% by year-end

Ratings agency Moody’s sees inflation in Argentina at 30% by the end of this year, but may revise that figure downward, a senior analyst at the firm said during an event on Tuesday.

Inflation has been showing progress under the government of libertarian President Javier Milei, which has been focused on taming runaway prices, but the rate has stagnated in the past several months.

“Now, with the lifting of foreign-exchange restrictions and the fact that fuel prices have fallen, we may revise the projection downward, depending on the inflation rates for April and May,” Jaime Reusche, vice president and senior credit officer in the sovereign risk group at Moody’s, said.

Reusche described the government’s actions as “prudent” and praised the lifting of the country’s currency restrictions announced back in April.

The Moody’s year-end estimate would mark a further drop from the latest data, which stood at 55.9% in the 12 months through March, slowing from a rate of 66.9% recorded in the previous month but above analysts’ expectations.

Reusche also said that Moody’s could upgrade the nation’s sovereign credit rating, but that such a move would be quite gradual.

According to the executive, Moody’s projects Argentina’s economy to grow 4% in 2025, compared with the market’s expectation of 5%, but the firm may revise its projection upward.